Wednesday, 10 October 2012
Committee on Public Service and Demographic Change
First published at www.ilcuk.org.uk
Before the summer recess, the Committee on Public Service and Demographic Change held its first evidence session. The Committee, whose remit is to consider public service provision in the light of demographic change, opened their enquiry by quizzing demographers on our ageing society.
How reliable is the data?
The experts were asked how reliable different population projections were over the short and long term. The Lords were particularly keen to understand whether the figures could be relied upon for planning purposes.
The ONS pointed out that they project the population up to 100 years ahead. They argued that the projections for the next 10 years are fairly certain. In terms of population ageing, older people are already alive so the birth rate does not impact on the numbers in the short term.
However the witnesses pointed out that beyond 10 or 15 years, the figures become much more uncertain, with the main uncertainties relating to fertility and migration.
The committee sought explanation for different projections from the ONS and the OBR. The witnesses pointed out that the OBR uses the lower migration variant in projections. This assumes migration is lower than if we just pushed forward on current trends.
Migration and fertility
The Committee dedicated a significant amount of time available to debating the impact of migration and fertility on the demography on the UK.
Guy Goodwin pointed out there are two factors which effect the number of births in the country. The first being the fertility rate and the second being the number of women of child bearing age in the population. The latter of these is impacted by women moving to the UK from other places with higher fertility rates and bringing these rates with them. Mr Goodwin explained that this is what is partly what is driving the increased fertility rate. Ben Humberstone noted that the current fertility rate was 1.98, but that it was due to grow to 2 before falling to 1.84.
Suzie Dunsmith explained that higher fertility in the UK over the past ten years has contributed to a slower ageing society than in many European Countries.
Healthy life expectancy
Professor Ludi Simpson noted that “At the moment, expectation of life at birth is increasing by something like more than two months every year, which is wonderful news. Whether it can continue to increase is something that academics disagree about.
The vexed question of whether healthy life expectancy was keeping up with life expectancy was explored by the Committee. Guy Goodwin pointed out that the figures are “not particularly encouraging” noting that “healthy life expectancy for women is broadly increasing at the same rate as life expectancy. But the healthy life expectancy of men is increasing at a lower percentage increase than life expectancy.
Inward migration
The Committee asked about the accuracy of data at a local level, referencing on ONS report which pointed out that “Wales has more aged population than England. Part of the reason is that younger people have tended to migrate out of Wales”. In terms of accuracy of local data, Mr Goodwin noted that as you get “as you get down to a local level, the uncertainties inevitably in some places will rise”. Ben Humberstone added “some areas are more difficult to estimate than others; for example, areas of high population churn, high net migration, students and special populations and so on”.
Where next
The Committee is due to take evidence over the next few months before reporting early in 2013. ILC-UK has contributed evidence to the Committee, which we have published today. Given the relevance of this inquiry to our work, we will be keeping a close eye on proceedings.
David Sinclair
Read the evidence from the first session at: http://www.parliament.uk/business/committees/committees-a-z/lords-select/public-services-committee/
ILC-UK Evidence for the House of Lords Select Committee on Public Service and Demographic Change: http://www.ilcuk.org.uk/index.php/publications/publication_details/the_impact_of_demographic_change_on_public_service
Tuesday, 9 October 2012
Saturday, 6 October 2012
Active Ageing, Assistive Technologies & Reducing the Cost of Care for Older People
On Friday I spoke at an event in Kent on Active Ageing, Assistive Technologies & Reducing the Cost of Care for Older People
Here are my slides:
Here are my slides:
Cookery Magic, Singapore
This time last year I visited Singapore with work. I had a few days off to see the sights. The real highlight for me was the Cookery Magic course I did for a few hours one afternoon. Its a bit of a walk from the nearest station (especially in the Singapore sun) but it also meant I got to see a residential bit of the city.
I learnt how to cook
It was great fun. I was with a group of about 10 people but everyone got to make their own after being shown how to do it. I would love to go back. If you are ever in Singapore do go to Cookery Magic.
This is how you kill a crab!
And the final version of Chilli Crab.
I learnt how to cook
- Char Kuey Teow (fried rice noodles)
- Chilli Crab
- Onde Onde
It was great fun. I was with a group of about 10 people but everyone got to make their own after being shown how to do it. I would love to go back. If you are ever in Singapore do go to Cookery Magic.
This is how you kill a crab!
And here are some noodles I made.
And the final version of Chilli Crab.
Jury's Inn, Manchester
Not a bad hotel at all. The staff were perfectly pleasant. The room overlooked a law firm so not the best view.
The breakfast was plentiful if not particularly inspiring. The location is pretty good.
Stayed over party conference period so the room price was obscene. Certainly I'd expect much more for the price.
Friday, 5 October 2012
Housing crisis highlights delayed adulthood
There is increasing recent academic and social policy interest in delayed adulthood, and this report highlights but one aspect of this trend. ILC-UK has conducted some interesting work with our international partners as part of the ILC Global Alliance looking at multigenerational households around the world. While there are many advantages to intergenerational living, this trend in ‘delayed adulthood’ as well as the economic strains which are causing families to live this way can put pressure on relations between generations.
Maintaining good intergenerational relationships is dependent on managing these issues effectively. It is vital that links between generations are not eroded by the economic tension facing families across the UK and around the world.
David Sinclair and Jessica Watson
You can follow the ILC Global Alliance on twitter at @ILCGlobal
Wednesday, 26 September 2012
Increasing numbers of people are growing old in prison
There are some fascinating new bits of data in the latest annual report of the Prisons and Probation Ombudsman.
The report reveals that increasing numbers of people are growing old and dying of natural causes in prison. In June 2011, there were 9,000 prisoners aged over 50 across England and Wales, 10.5% of the population. Prisoners aged 60 and over are now the fastest growing age group in the prison estate with their numbers rising 128% between 2000 and 2010.
The report highlights how the sector is beginning to adapt to an ageing society. It claims for example that “palliative care provision has improved and some prisons now have specific palliative care suites to manage the needs of prisoners who are dying”.
The annual report also flags the increasing use of other prisoners to support the care needs of older prisoners with complicated needs. But the Ombudsman flags the need for proper training and support, highlighting the case study below.
Mr X volunteered to act as a carer for an elderly prisoner with complex medical needs. He had cared for his parents in ill health, but had no formal experience or healthcare qualifications. However, he was expected to shower Mr J, and often had to clear up his incontinence, among other difficult duties. He told the investigator that he felt isolated and unsupported by staff. Officers and healthcare staff did not take responsibility for Mr J’s complex and demanding needs. The carer was an excellent source of support for the elderly man, but was left vulnerable himself.
The report also notes that their calls last year for a “formal revision of restraints policy relating to seriously ill prisoners…and enable more prisoners to die with dignity” had not been complied with. They reported that they continue to investigate deaths where “elderly people with limited mobility have been restrained with handcuffs and chains, even when they had been assessed as a low escape risk and a low risk to the public. In some cases, restraints had restricted their access to appropriate healthcare intervention”.
The fact that part of the report is specifically dedicated to older prisoners, highlights increased recognition of our demographic challenges. The prison sector seems to have made good progress as the older population has grown. But the growth we have seen in the number of older prisoners is a trend which will continue. Will the sector continue to cope, let alone improve?
David Sinclair
Prisons and Probation Ombudsman Press Release: http://www.ppo.gov.uk/docs/PPO_annual_report_content_web_(17).pdf
The report highlights how the sector is beginning to adapt to an ageing society. It claims for example that “palliative care provision has improved and some prisons now have specific palliative care suites to manage the needs of prisoners who are dying”.
The annual report also flags the increasing use of other prisoners to support the care needs of older prisoners with complicated needs. But the Ombudsman flags the need for proper training and support, highlighting the case study below.
Mr X volunteered to act as a carer for an elderly prisoner with complex medical needs. He had cared for his parents in ill health, but had no formal experience or healthcare qualifications. However, he was expected to shower Mr J, and often had to clear up his incontinence, among other difficult duties. He told the investigator that he felt isolated and unsupported by staff. Officers and healthcare staff did not take responsibility for Mr J’s complex and demanding needs. The carer was an excellent source of support for the elderly man, but was left vulnerable himself.
The report also notes that their calls last year for a “formal revision of restraints policy relating to seriously ill prisoners…and enable more prisoners to die with dignity” had not been complied with. They reported that they continue to investigate deaths where “elderly people with limited mobility have been restrained with handcuffs and chains, even when they had been assessed as a low escape risk and a low risk to the public. In some cases, restraints had restricted their access to appropriate healthcare intervention”.
The fact that part of the report is specifically dedicated to older prisoners, highlights increased recognition of our demographic challenges. The prison sector seems to have made good progress as the older population has grown. But the growth we have seen in the number of older prisoners is a trend which will continue. Will the sector continue to cope, let alone improve?
David Sinclair
Prisons and Probation Ombudsman Press Release: http://www.ppo.gov.uk/docs/PPO_annual_report_content_web_(17).pdf
Sunday, 23 September 2012
Travelodge City Airport
I stayed here the night before my birthday as I was presenting the Mallowstreet Awards in London and couldn't get the last train.
Whilst the hotel is literally at the end of the runway, it is a good 10 minutes walk from the DLR station along a quiet road. The DLR to the hotel has some quite nice views over East London.
It is a pretty unspectacular travelodge. But I got a good deal (£44) for London. The shower had some missing buttons but the room was clean. There was no bath. I had a distant view of the Thames Barrier from the room. Despite being next to the airport I wasn't disturbed by aeroplanes (although I was the other side of the hotel).
I didn't use the bar/lounge but it looked pretty nice. Staff were nice, as you would expect from a chain like travelodge.
Whilst the hotel is literally at the end of the runway, it is a good 10 minutes walk from the DLR station along a quiet road. The DLR to the hotel has some quite nice views over East London.
It is a pretty unspectacular travelodge. But I got a good deal (£44) for London. The shower had some missing buttons but the room was clean. There was no bath. I had a distant view of the Thames Barrier from the room. Despite being next to the airport I wasn't disturbed by aeroplanes (although I was the other side of the hotel).
I didn't use the bar/lounge but it looked pretty nice. Staff were nice, as you would expect from a chain like travelodge.
A list: Hotels I've stayed in.
I doubt I will remember to keep this up to date. But I will try. I appreciate this is not very interesting.
15th September 2012: West Park Hotel, Newcastle. Room 4
19th September 2012: Travelodge City Airport. Room 208
30th September/1st October 2012: Jury's Inn, Manchester. Room 121
15th October: Holiday Inn Stratford Upon Avon. Room 1070
28th October: De Vere Horsley Park, East Horsley
7th/8th November: Burlington Hotel Dublin
11th November: Travelodge Kings Cross. Room 318
15th November: Hotel Chatillon, Paris Room 14
18th/19th November. Hotel Euroflat, Brussels Rm 5.03
2nd December. Rochester Grange, London
28th/30th December. Premier Inn Manchester Piccadilli
22nd January 2013. Hotel Avis, Brussels
31st January 2013. Travelodge Gatwick Central
11th February 2013. Hotel Thon Brussels
12th February 2013. Premier Inn Gatwick North 7th floor
19th February 2013. Premier Inn Gatwick North. 5th floor
20th February 2013: Premier Inn Edinburgh Princess Street. Room 508
5th March 2013: Novotel Liverpool.
5th and 6th April 2013: Premier Inn Blackpool Central
7th April 2013: Premier Inn Solihul
10th, 11th, 12th April 2013: Prizeotel Bremen
18th April 2013: Hilton Hotel Belfast
17th May 2013: Husa President Park, Brussels
17th June 2013: Aris Hotel Brussels
18th June 2013: Atlas Hotel Brussels
19th and 20th June 2013: Aris Hotel Brussels
31st July: Wessex Royale Hotel, Dorchester
1st -5th August (4 nights) Manor House Hotel Okehampton
5th August Premier Inn Newquay (Quintrill Downs)
6th and 7th August: Premier Inn Hayle (St Ives)
8th August 2013: Premier Inn St Austell
9th and 10th August 2013: Tourak Hotel Torquay
11th and 12th September 2013: Keeble College Oxford
15th to 20th September (5 nights): Crewe Hall, Crewe. 4006
22nd to 25th September (3 nights): Legends Hotel Brighton
26th September: Radisson Blu Europa, Brussels
29th September to 1st October (2 nights): Abode Manchester
1st October. Premier Inn. Manchester (1 night)
3rd October: Hotel Albergo La Meridiana, Venice
23rd October: Atlas Hotel Brussels
4th November: Premier Inn Princess Street Edinburgh
6th November: Village South Leeds
12th November: Marivaux Hotel Brussels
Friday, 21 September 2012
Intergenerational Giving Crisis
First published at www.ilcuk.org.uk
It has long been the case that older people donate more to charity than younger generations. But it is worrying to learn about the growing giving gap between young and old?
Research published today by the Charities Aid Foundation highlights a “long-term crisis of giving – with new generations failing to match the generosity of people born in the inter-war years”.
The research reveals that in 1980, 29% of over-60s gave to charity, compared with 23% of under-30s. Looking today, the number of over-60s who claimed to have donated to charity in the previous fortnight had risen to 32%. The figure for under-30s was just 16%.
More than half of all donations to charity (52 per cent) now come from the over-60s, compared to just over one-third (35 per cent) thirty years ago.
So why might this be and what can be done about?
One argument might be that younger people today are more squeezed than previous generations. However, younger people in the 1980s faced their own economic pressures, and the report reveals that older people give more as a share of their total spending.
Worryingly, the report suggests that the ‘generosity gap’ has widened over the past three decades. The over-60s are now more than six times more generous than the under-30s compared to less than three times more generous, thirty years ago.
Over recent years, the fundraising sector has placed significant focus on targeting younger donors. Face to Face fundraising, which attracts widespread criticism, is one example of a technique partly motivated by attracting younger donors. Talking face to face about a cause can be a good way to engage younger people.
Similarly, the move towards new and innovative ways of giving using new technology is also often targeted at younger people.
There are some very sensible suggestions in the CAF report, including the need to get younger people engaged as charity trustees and the promotion of “living legacies”. Yet perhaps charities should also think about how they can use older people to motivate, engage and support family and other younger community members into charitable giving.
More fundamentally, the real worry painted by the research is of a long-term decline in the proportion of households giving to charity.
David Sinclair
My colleagues, Lyndsey Mitchell and Jessica Watson (aged 30 and 24), are currently training for a charity assault-course run to raise funds for The Peace Hospice. You can sponsor them here.
‘Mind The Gap – The growing generational divide in charitable giving: a research paper’.
It has long been the case that older people donate more to charity than younger generations. But it is worrying to learn about the growing giving gap between young and old?
Research published today by the Charities Aid Foundation highlights a “long-term crisis of giving – with new generations failing to match the generosity of people born in the inter-war years”.
The research reveals that in 1980, 29% of over-60s gave to charity, compared with 23% of under-30s. Looking today, the number of over-60s who claimed to have donated to charity in the previous fortnight had risen to 32%. The figure for under-30s was just 16%.
More than half of all donations to charity (52 per cent) now come from the over-60s, compared to just over one-third (35 per cent) thirty years ago.
So why might this be and what can be done about?
One argument might be that younger people today are more squeezed than previous generations. However, younger people in the 1980s faced their own economic pressures, and the report reveals that older people give more as a share of their total spending.
Worryingly, the report suggests that the ‘generosity gap’ has widened over the past three decades. The over-60s are now more than six times more generous than the under-30s compared to less than three times more generous, thirty years ago.
Over recent years, the fundraising sector has placed significant focus on targeting younger donors. Face to Face fundraising, which attracts widespread criticism, is one example of a technique partly motivated by attracting younger donors. Talking face to face about a cause can be a good way to engage younger people.
Similarly, the move towards new and innovative ways of giving using new technology is also often targeted at younger people.
There are some very sensible suggestions in the CAF report, including the need to get younger people engaged as charity trustees and the promotion of “living legacies”. Yet perhaps charities should also think about how they can use older people to motivate, engage and support family and other younger community members into charitable giving.
More fundamentally, the real worry painted by the research is of a long-term decline in the proportion of households giving to charity.
David Sinclair
My colleagues, Lyndsey Mitchell and Jessica Watson (aged 30 and 24), are currently training for a charity assault-course run to raise funds for The Peace Hospice. You can sponsor them here.
‘Mind The Gap – The growing generational divide in charitable giving: a research paper’.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)