Committee on Public Service and Demographic Change

First published at www.ilcuk.org.uk

Before the summer recess, the Committee on Public Service and Demographic Change held its first evidence session. The Committee, whose remit is to consider public service provision in the light of demographic change, opened their enquiry by quizzing demographers on our ageing society.

How reliable is the data?
The experts were asked how reliable different population projections were over the short and long term. The Lords were particularly keen to understand whether the figures could be relied upon for planning purposes.

The ONS pointed out that they project the population up to 100 years ahead. They argued that the projections for the next 10 years are fairly certain. In terms of population ageing, older people are already alive so the birth rate does not impact on the numbers in the short term.

However the witnesses pointed out that beyond 10 or 15 years, the figures become much more uncertain, with the main uncertainties relating to fertility and migration.

The committee sought explanation for different projections from the ONS and the OBR. The witnesses pointed out that the OBR uses the lower migration variant in projections. This assumes migration is lower than if we just pushed forward on current trends.

Migration and fertility
The Committee dedicated a significant amount of time available to debating the impact of migration and fertility on the demography on the UK.

Guy Goodwin pointed out there are two factors which effect the number of births in the country. The first being the fertility rate and the second being the number of women of child bearing age in the population. The latter of these is impacted by women moving to the UK from other places with higher fertility rates and bringing these rates with them. Mr Goodwin explained that this is what is partly what is driving the increased fertility rate. Ben Humberstone noted that the current fertility rate was 1.98, but that it was due to grow to 2 before falling to 1.84.

Suzie Dunsmith explained that higher fertility in the UK over the past ten years has contributed to a slower ageing society than in many European Countries.

Healthy life expectancy
Professor Ludi Simpson noted that “At the moment, expectation of life at birth is increasing by something like more than two months every year, which is wonderful news. Whether it can continue to increase is something that academics disagree about.

The vexed question of whether healthy life expectancy was keeping up with life expectancy was explored by the Committee. Guy Goodwin pointed out that the figures are “not particularly encouraging” noting that “healthy life expectancy for women is broadly increasing at the same rate as life expectancy. But the healthy life expectancy of men is increasing at a lower percentage increase than life expectancy.

Inward migration
The Committee asked about the accuracy of data at a local level, referencing on ONS report which pointed out that “Wales has more aged population than England. Part of the reason is that younger people have tended to migrate out of Wales”. In terms of accuracy of local data, Mr Goodwin noted that as you get “as you get down to a local level, the uncertainties inevitably in some places will rise”. Ben Humberstone added “some areas are more difficult to estimate than others; for example, areas of high population churn, high net migration, students and special populations and so on”.

Where next
The Committee is due to take evidence over the next few months before reporting early in 2013. ILC-UK has contributed evidence to the Committee, which we have published today. Given the relevance of this inquiry to our work, we will be keeping a close eye on proceedings.

David Sinclair
Read the evidence from the first session at: http://www.parliament.uk/business/committees/committees-a-z/lords-select/public-services-committee/
ILC-UK Evidence for the House of Lords Select Committee on Public Service and Demographic Change: http://www.ilcuk.org.uk/index.php/publications/publication_details/the_impact_of_demographic_change_on_public_service