Thursday, 23 February 2017
Cycling in Korea - People are nice
Wednesday, 17 June 2015
Parc du Cinquantenaire
A couple of days in Brussels and I had time for early morning runs in Parc du Cinquantenaire.
I did my longest run in a while and it felt relatively easy. There is a gentle uphill/downhill around the park which made for inconsistent lap pacing. There were lots of people out running even at 6am Brussels time.
The cost of long term care
This striking graph from the latest EU Ageing Report*1 highlights how the UK continues to spend a relatively small proportion of GDP on long term care (LTC).
It also highlights that, far from a demographic crisis in the long term costs of care, LTC costs as a percentage of GDP will increase in the UK by just 0.4% between 2015 and 2060.
What the data does not take account of however, is whether Government spending on care is adequate today, or indeed, whether it will be tomorrow.
We heard today from Age UK of a cost of almost £700m to the health service as a result of 2.5 million days of delayed discharge over the past five years *2.
So whilst there is some good news for the Treasury from the EU analysis, there is likely to be increasing pressure on Government to improve the quality of care as well as invest in prevention. Better integration of services could help hold back costs as can innovation in health and care.
Over the next five years we will start to see the return on recent financial and policy investment in integration. But the growing prevalence of serious illness amongst those aged over 80 and a growing ageing population will put pressures on budgets.*3
And as Age UK have highlighted today, squeezing social care is a false economy if it simply pushes up healthcare costs.
David Sinclair
*1 http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/european_economy/2015/ee3_en.htm
*2 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/health/elder/11678941/Elderly-care-shortages-cost-NHS-669-million-as-toll-of-bed-blocking-crisis-spirals.html
*3 http://www.ilcuk.org.uk/index.php/publications/publication_details/serious_illness_in_the_over_50s
Also at www.ilcuk.org.uk
Sunday, 14 June 2015
Worthing 10k
I’ve had a bit of leg/ankle pain for the last 6 weeks which I’ve been struggling to lose. I’ve been going slow for the last month and I didn’t run at all in the 8 days before the Worthing 10k to see if resting would make a difference. It worked. I’ve still a few twinges but I managed to get through the run without any major pain.
- They gave away a new flavour of Lucozade (mango and passionfruit). It was good
- Weather was too hot
- But fortunately it wasn’t too too windy
- The course is an out and back one. It goes along the seafront but the sea is out of site for much of the run.
- I was beaten on the line by a women who I was behind for much of the race but who I took over in the last km. I’d have sprinted if I’d realised she was so close. (I do often try and keep up with someone else running at a similar pace to me)
- They gave small bottles of water at half way
- I got a medal. And no goody bag (in previous years I’m told they gave away mugs)
- I found it easier than the Bognor 10k a few weeks earlier where the wind hit me hard for the last 5km and I completely lost energy
- 10k is a nice distance for a run. 5k is basically run as fast as you can. 10k about a bit more stamina and getting pacing right is more important.
- I’ve discovered Jointace Gel. Very good massage gel for joints and muscles.
- I know I should start stretching after running. But I doubt I will.
Saturday, 4 April 2015
Monday, 3 November 2014
Are we killing with kindness?
Friday, 24 October 2014
7 lessons from the Missing Million
Yesterday we published our Missing Million report with the support of Prime and Business in the Community.
- Of the 3.3 million economically inactive people aged 50-64, approximately 1 million people have been made ‘involuntarily workless’
- There are around 1.2 million people aged over 50 would be willing to work if the right opportunity arose
- A higher proportion of older workers does not “crowd out” the labour market for younger workers. Our analysis shows that, on average, those local authorities that do well with regard to the employment of older workers also do well in terms of employing younger workers.
- 26% of people aged 50-64 who are currently out of work would like to work – this rises to 45.8% of all those out of work aged 50-54.
- 50-64 year olds account for 41% of the total number of people who are economically inactive aged 18-64 (as at Q1 2014).
- If the skills and abilities of the 50-64 age group were fully utilised and the employment rate matched that of those in their 30s and 40s, UK GDP could be £88.4bn higher in 2014 (equivalent to an uplift of 5.6% of GDP).
- Self-employment accounts for 19.4% of all workers aged 50-64 and for 40.8% of all workers aged 65 and older.
- The 50+ age group accounts for 42.9% of all self-employment in the UK and 2 million people.
- The size of the UK’s workforce is likely to flat-line, projected to increase by just 4.5% over the next 20 years by comparison to an 18.2% rise over the last two decades.
- Among those in their 50s, long term sickness is the cause of half of all inactivity put down to poor health amongst those aged 50-54 and nearly 40% amongst those aged 55-59.
- People over 50 want to see more flexible working options afforded to them, 15% even said they would even take less pay in order to work fewer hours – indicating that there is a large contingent of older workers who would like additional flexibility but who are locked into working long hours.
Let's get Britain building
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Units (properties) update October 2014
|
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
Year completed
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McCarthy and Stone
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All
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%
|
|
2005
|
1747
|
2708
|
65%
|
|
2006
|
2296
|
4152
|
55%
|
|
2007
|
2205
|
4542
|
49%
|
|
2008
|
2452
|
4249
|
58%
|
|
2009
|
870
|
2417
|
36%
|
|
2010
|
491
|
1160
|
42%
|
|
2011
|
892
|
1745
|
51%
|
|
2012
|
1166
|
2376
|
49%
|
|
2013
|
2071
|
2938
|
70%
|
Friday, 9 May 2014
Friday, 13 December 2013
Payments divide
Last week’s infrastructure collapse by NatWest/RBS brought into focus our increasing reliance on technology to support payments.
Many thousands found themselves embarrassed in petrol stations and supermarkets, finding their credit and debit card’s refused. Online banking systems failed and consumers hit to social media to vent anger.
The way we pay for goods and services is hardly the sexiest topic we at ILC-UK are lucky enough to explore. But as we saw last week, it is all too easy to become complacent about what is a fundamentally important part of our economy.
Why do we care?
The recent Payments Markets Review by the Payments Council suggests a stalling in the long-term decline in the use of cash. While the volume of cash payments fell steadily up until 2010, it has increased slightly since then. But the long-term decline in cash use is expected to continue. By 2015 there will be more non-cash payments than cash payments. And by 2022 there may be more payments by debit card than by cash.
The evidence from the Payments Council shows a divergence by age group in how people pay for goods and services. We have witnessed a decline in cheque use over the past two decades or so, but whilst around one in twenty 16-24 year olds used a cheque in 2012, almost 7 in ten over 65s did. 16-24 year olds wrote around 3 cheques on average in 2012, compared to the over 65s who used them over 18 times.
Internet banking use by age also varies significantly. Around 70% of 25-34 year olds made internet banking payments in 2012, but just over 30% of over 55’s did. People aged over 65 made just over two remote payments on average in 2012 (that is, payments made using internet, telephone and mobile banking), whilst those aged 25-34 made around 12 on average.
A recent trend is the growth in mobile banking. This, too, shows a divergence in use by age but the service has not been around for long. A very small percentage of over 55s use mobile banking for payments compared to almost one third of 16-24 year olds.
Whilst a few percent of 25-34 year olds don’t use cashpoints, around 1 in 4 over 65s don’t. 25-34 year olds made over 70 ATM transactions in 2012 whilst those over 65 made less than 40 on average.
Why do our methods of payment vary by age?
On the one hand, younger people may be more likely to buy products and services (e.g. online subscription services) that can only be paid for using electronic payments.
And there are undoubtedly a small number of payments made by older people where cheque and cash payments are more convenient. Older housebound people are often reliant on cheques and cash and there may be no convenient alternatives. Research on financial exclusion (NB link opens pdf) has shown that people on a low fixed income perceive themselves to be more in control when managing money in cash than electronically.
But these are the exceptions and a huge number of transactions being paid for in cash by older people could potentially be paid for by cash and cheque. The new figures from the Payments Council reveal that 145 million of 485 million cheque payments are for purchases in the retail, travel, and entertainment sectors. A high proportion of these payments could potentially be made using other means of payment.
There is also likely to be a cohort effect, with some older people using cheques because they always have and younger people moving into new technology for payments.
What can we do?
The introduction of Chip and Pin by the industry helped raise the awareness in the industry of the diversity of their consumer base. Research showed that the hundreds of thousands of people living in the community with dementia might struggle with pin numbers. And criticisms from charities let to a recognition within the industry of the importance of ensuring more usable and accessible chip and pin machines. The industry responded with better designed machines and an exceptions service for those who couldn’t use Chip and Pin.
But if the trend away from cash payments is to continue, the industry must ensure that its products and services are as accessible, usable and well promoted as possible.
Information and advice is also vital. People of all ages need to understand how new technology works. An investment in financial education across the life-course is vital. There will be a link between payments exclusion and digital exclusion. If we are to get more older people using new methods of payment, we must invest much more in tackling digital exclusion.
To the credit of the Payments Council, they have done a lot of work on these issues. They have sought to better promote Chip and Pin and have tried to invest in materials to help individuals make the move from cash. They have also invested in research to better understand the older and disabled consumer.
But the payments divide will not just simply disappear. The growth in mobile payments highlight a new divide whilst the digital divide remains significant. As Nat West customers found this week, not being able to pay for what you want can be inconvenient and embarrassing. It can also have much more serious repercussions, contributing, for example to social exclusion. Payments might not be the sexiest subject for ILC-UK but policymakers, industry and regulators must not fall into complacency.
David Sinclair
First published at www.ilcuk.org.uk
New figures in this blog were provided by the Payments Council to the Payments Council Consumer Forum. Some of the information is available in this Payments Council report on Payment Trends http://www.paymentscouncil.org.uk/files/payments_council/statistical_publications/the_way_we_pay_-_february_2013.pdf.
Wednesday, 11 December 2013
Europe’s economy needs more older workers
Europe faces significant labour market gaps as a result of demographic change. In the UK alone there are 13.5 million job vacancies, which need to be filled over the next ten years. But only seven million young people are projected to leave school and college over that time.
Despite a growth in the number of older workers since the 1990s, the EU is still failing to meet its target set in 2001 to achieve 50% employment rate of older workers by 2010. Over the period 2002-2008, the average age of labour market withdrawal among the EU-28 had only increased by an estimated 1.3 years, from 60.1 to 61.4.
And whilst the employment levels of older workers has increased over the past decade by 10% there is significant variation across Europe. Just 13% of Hungarians aged 60-64 were in work in 2010 compared to over 60% of Swedes.
Our recent report, Working Longer, An EU perspective highlights interesting initiatives seeking to promote extended working lives from across Europe. For example.
§ Changes since 2006 in Sweden offer more favourable treatment for work related income than pension income.
§ Reforms in Croatia have meant that those who retire early are now subject to between a 0.15% and 0.34% loss every month in the value of their pension. In contrast, people who delay retirement are entitled to a 0.15% monthly increase in the value of their pension.
§ France has introduced a gradual retirement scheme, which allows workers to reduce their working hours on reaching 60 (62 in 2017) and receive a proportion of their pension in return.
§ A Portuguese New Opportunities Initiative gives preferential access for older people to lifelong learning.
§ The Finnish government has invested in the KESTO-program built up a database for research on extending working life.
Not all of these initiatives will work in every country and our analysis suggests a need for greater understanding of “what works”. Government initiatives to support older workers are often poorly evaluated for effectiveness. As a result it is difficult to “learn from the best”.
Older people have not been exempt from the impact of the recession. Governments have removed incentives to early retirement within pension schemes which has resulted in greater numbers being active in the labour market, but unemployed. Across Europe, a relatively high proportion of unemployed 55-64 year olds have not worked for 12 months or more.
In every EU Member State, the life expectancy of women is higher than that of men, by 5.9 years on average. Yet despite living longer across the EU, women participate less in the labour market and retire earlier.
Our report highlighted the need to do more to up-skill the older workforce across Europe. The current cohort of older workers in Europe have low levels of education and qualifications compared to younger groups.
It’s not just having a skilled workforce which is an issue. European policymakers must focus energies on creating the sort of jobs which European citizens want to do. There has been inadequate focus on the extent to which Europe’s economy has been creating the right sort of jobs to meet the needs and wishes of the supply of older workers.
One of the biggest challenges facing the working longer agenda is poor health of older workers. However, our analysis found relatively few initiatives by governments or employers to explicitly improve the health of older workers.
The EU has led the way in delivering legislation to tackle age discrimination in the workforce. But we must ensure the legislation is properly implemented. We must also monitor whether the legislation has tackled negative attitudes towards older workers.
On the one hand, the message is positive, participation in the labour force by older workers is up. But it is only moving up slowly. Those EU economies which take steps now to maximise the potential of older workers, are likely to see significant economic return on their investment.
David Sinclair
Working Longer: An EU perspective, supported by Prudential, explores how the EU and its 28 members have responded to the working longer agenda. It is available on the ILC-UK website at www.ilcuk.org.uk
Friday, 22 November 2013
Immune response
My presentation from this week’s launch of the ILC-UK report on adult immunisation is now on slideshare.
Wednesday, 13 November 2013
SAATI launch
I’ve been in Brussels for the day. For the launch of the SAATI report.
It was a good event. Having been involved for almost three years it was great to see the report come to fruition.
Outside the European Parliament, the homeless of Brussels use the Berlin Wall to store their blankets.
It was 20 degrees. In November. In Brussels.
Advice in an ageing society
I spoke at a conference in Leeds for Money Marketing last Thursday. The event was held at the Village Hotel South which is officially bloody miles from Leeds.
And the Leeds taxi drivers do enjoy very hot temperatures in their cabs.
I got an upgrade on the room so had Starbucks coffee and Sky Movies. Which was nice.
I’ve spoken at the hotel before – on the memorable speaking tour for a hearing aid company in 2011.
It was a nice excuse to get to see Mr Hopkins and family who live in Leeds.
Sunday, 10 November 2013
Car boot sales
I cycled to the car boot sale at Fontwell only to discover it wasnt on. Then went on to Ford where I met up with Michelle and George.
Friday, 8 November 2013
Wednesday, 6 November 2013
Bristol in a day
Another early flight. This time Edinburgh to Bristol, for the third of our face to face meetings with PFRC at Bristol University. ILC-UK are working with PFRC on an ESRC funded project on financial wellbeing in later life.
The project has been going really well (if i say so myself). We’ve already published work on mortgage debt and understanding the oldest old. We’ve got more work coming up on segmenting the older consumer, debt and financial satisfaction across the world. Bristol are doing most of the research and we are doing the dissemination and policy analysis.
We’ve had lots of press coverage for the project so far. And I recorded a podcast for ESRC/Understanding Society. Which you can find here.
There is lots of information about the project on the PRFC and ILC-UK website.
We discussed plans for the final launch events as well as academic dissemination. And Bristol took us out for a really nice lunch. Fennel and blue cheese tarte tatin to start and Quinoir and pumpkin for main.
When I got home I popped for a little jog. Very pleased to do it as I really didn’t want to go out. The divergence on my circuit below due to me forgetting to pick up milk on the way home.
